Coca-Cola sees modest expansion as demand uncertainty weighs after the beverage giant posted weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue, marking the first time in five years that the company has missed Wall Street’s sales forecasts. While the results fell short of analyst expectations, Coca-Cola noted early signs of improving demand in key regions, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook for the year ahead.
Mixed Quarterly Performance
For the quarter ending December 31, Coca-Cola reported adjusted revenue of $11.82 billion, below analysts’ expectations of $12.03 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 58 cents, topping forecasts of 56 cents. Net income attributable to shareholders rose to $2.27 billion, or 53 cents per share, compared with $2.2 billion, or 51 cents per share, a year earlier.
On an organic basis — which excludes currency effects and portfolio changes — revenue increased 5% during the quarter. Overall net sales grew 2%, while unit case volume edged up 1%, marking the second consecutive quarter of volume growth and signaling a gradual stabilization in demand.
Regional and Category Trends
Like its rival PepsiCo, Coca-Cola has felt pressure from cautious consumers who are tightening grocery budgets and cutting back on dining out. As a result, total company volume for 2025 remained flat compared with the previous year.
However, some premium and health-focused brands delivered stronger results. Products such as Smartwater and Fairlife continued to attract consumers willing to pay more for perceived quality and wellness benefits. North America posted a 1% volume increase, while Latin America saw volumes rise 2%, suggesting early recovery in two of Coca-Cola’s most important markets.
Globally, the water, sports, coffee, and tea segment outperformed the rest of the portfolio, with volumes up 3%, supported by demand for brands like Smartwater and Bodyarmor. Sparkling soft drinks posted flat overall volume, though Coca-Cola Zero Sugar stood out with a 13% volume jump, and the flagship Coca-Cola brand grew 1%.
Meanwhile, the juice, value-added dairy, and plant-based beverages division recorded a 3% decline in volume. Strong Fairlife sales were offset by the divestment of Coca-Cola’s finished product operations in Nigeria.
Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead, Coca-Cola is forecasting organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% and comparable earnings per share growth of 7% to 8% for full-year 2026. Outgoing CEO James Quincey emphasized a cautious and realistic approach, especially in international markets where economic conditions remain uncertain and execution improvements are needed.
Leadership Transition and Strategy
This earnings release marks Quincey’s final report as CEO. Chief Operating Officer Henrique Braun will take over as chief executive on March 31. Braun has outlined priorities that include accelerating product launches, improving marketing integration at the point of sale, and expanding digital capabilities across the company’s system.
CFO John Murphy also highlighted Coca-Cola’s continued interest in acquisitions, noting that nearly half of the company’s 32 billion-dollar brands originated through deal-making. Executives plan to provide more details on long-term strategy at the CAGNY conference on February 17.
Investor Perspective
Coca-Cola shares have climbed about 20% over the past year, lifting the company’s market value above $330 billion. While short-term revenue pressures remain, Coca-Cola sees modest expansion as demand uncertainty weighs, with early signs of regional recovery and strength in premium and health-oriented beverages supporting a cautiously positive outlook.
